A marathon journey and had it not been for Movies and Music, the journey would have been excruciatingly painful one too. Thanks to technology,I was able to keep myself engaged and entertained for the length of the journey.

By the end of the Journey I can say, i became eligible to call myself as "A Movie Addict" and a "Music Maniac". 6 movies in a span of 21 hours is I believe too high a number by any yardstick. The good thing about the whole exercises however was that most of them were real good, with a couple of them in the league of "Extra Ordinary".

All started off with "Sparrow" a Chinese movie, which deals with the story of a pick pocket and his gang of men and how they go about freeing a girl from a Big Shot. It was a a movie which started off well and tapered off towards the end. Then came Taimur n Shafia an Arabic movie which dealt with the story of lovers and the ego clashes between them. The movie must have been made as a full fledged comedy movie, however the director made it a regular commercial flick by adding some unnecessary elements towards the end.

After 2 movies i got a bit tired of movies and I moved to the Music Section where Haydn provided me not only the much needed entertainment but great comfort with his symphony Number 88.

With over brimming joy i returned back to continue my movie marathon and resumed it with "45 Yoam" an Arabic movie, which deals with the mindset of a youngster, who is charged with having murdered his parents. Did he really murder them? If so why did he do it?, the movie although moves on predictable lines in the second half makes for a good watch with a really moving climax. Wall- E followed and Pixar Studios with this movie have covered a subject which is not a subject which is usually covered by Animation movies. Handling a sensitive subject and handling it with finesse,the makers have made an all time great movie.

After taking a short nap and recharging myself i switched back to watch "The Dark Knight" and i felt so happy and joyous after watching this all time classic. If i were to write about this movie that alone would take up a few pages on itself. If Heath ledger's performance was brilliant to say the least, the Script work was simply out of the world. The whole angle in which the subject has been approached and dealt with calls for a "Thumbs Up". Amazing movie. After a series of emotional movies i needed to get myself out of that mood and i decided to go for Mamma Mia a light hearted musical characterized by Cool songs, awesome locations and an average screenplay.

After all this, i still had time and what better way to spend time rather than to listen John Williams, Indiana Jones, ET, Jaws, Jurassic Park,Goodness Me!!! Hats off to U Sir. And when my journey ended and i reached my Native Place with Superman and Olympic Fanfare theme ringing in my ears, I felt like a KING notwithstanding the fact that I dont have a fortune or a Kingdom or a Queen ;)

A movie which holds a mirror and shows to us the real India, thts Slumdog Millionaire for you.

Back in May we spoke about the poor handling of the Gujjars issue by Rajasthan's Chief Minsiter Vasundra Raje Scindia. The poor handling of the issue meant Vasundra Raje lost the trust of both the castes and this coupled with neglect for the masses in general has cost this election for the BJP and Vasundra Raje

Disclaimer: Well, Unlike Corporates who usually issue disclaimers in Font 4 at the end, I will issue my disclaimer right at the start. This article is not meant to hurt the feelings of any section of people, nor do I claim any great proficiency in the field of philosophy. In case if someone feels hurt I apologize and any contradicting views are always welcome.

Six months have just got over in a jiffy. Yes, Jiffy is the right word. So how has the experience been ?

"Down and Out" said my friend on the phone. I got really worried and asked him "Why, whats wrong?". He said he was very sad over the stock markets and was wondering how many years would it now take for him to recover his capital?

Whats the Magic Number? Cmon,must be an easy guess.Yep got it folks. Its 700. First it was the USA which was and i must say still is all fixated over this number and now we have a new friend or rather companion for them.

 It has happened. A long long wait has ended, more than a decade and a half has Indian Cricket waited for a good captain and it seems like the prayer of the fans have been answered.

I said to myself when i had my Pita Bread with Falafel and Vegetables. Yummy it was. Just as delicious as the Pita Bread and Falafels is the opportunity that we are now being presented with.

Yeah, a couple of people have done this recently through their statements.

Lets start off with the Honourable Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu Mr Karunanidhi, he has taken a swipe at Hindus and Hindu Culture for the Umpteenth time now. The recent one being the criticism of people's habit of wearing a Tilak on their forehead and a community's habit of wearing a thread over their shoulder.

He has gone on and said that Equality is the need of the hour and caste differences need to be uprooted and people should stop fighting over the existence of a Supreme power.

While i do fully aknowledge the need for Equality and the need to refrain from fighting over the existence of a Supreme Power or Not, i do have some questions for the Chief Minister

1. How does wearing a thread or Tilak on the forehead contribute to Inequality? Now why target a community again and again and create the illusion that a particular community alone is responsible for Inequality, when the reality is very different?

2. And why doesn't the Honourable CM speak about the caste differences that exist in other religions in the state? What is preventing him from speaking about other religions? Votes???

The Second Person is one of the most loved cricketers of the modern era, Adam Gilchrist, Following his recent swipes at Tendulkar, Ganguly and Harbahajan, he has gone on record and called Muralidaran a Chucker.

Now the best part about his statement though is that not at one place has he blamed Muralidharan, he has gone on and spoken about how this whole issue was politicised and projected as a Racist Issue, thereby sidetracking from the main problem.

Notwithstanding the fact Racism exists, the recent hype over Obama being the first "Black President" is a live example of how we are still looking at people.Obama's colour and not his credentials have become the biggest talking point and it is something that i feel we must be ashamed of. We still subconsciously differentiate people based on such silly things.

Coming back to our topic, in spite of the aforementioned fact, I have always felt like Gilchrist that Murali's issue was side tracked and projected as an Issue of Racism. Now I am pretty sure that this Statement will create a tremor or two in cricketing fraternity.

Now people all over the world are asking "Why Gilly?"

Billions and Billions of dollars of Investor Wealth wiped out and there seems to be more pain in the offing. Markets have corrected (?) from a high of 21k to 10k levels and going by the intensity of the downward move, i think it can be safely assumed that we have not yet seen the Bottom.

Global Financial Crisis, has taken India along with it and in fact it had done more damage to Indian markets than it has done to the US markets. Warren Buffet once said ,If one did not have the capacity to see his stock beaten down into half without losing his composure, one must avoid the Stock Markets.

Speaking of Buffet's wealth itself has gone down by $10 Billion USD thanks to the recent crash/ correction. But he seems unperturbed, in fact he has gone on record saying that this is the time to "BUY", and he has actually bought into Goldman Sachs.


So what should we do here in India? Follow the God Of Investing? Well, predicting the bottom is not an easy task, but i would stick my neck out and say that the market has more downside left and we can consider buying after that.

What if u have not sold out of the market when the market hit a high of 21k? Well, as it stands nothin much can be done since u cannot sell out now. But maybe its time for u to analyze why u held on to them in the first place without selling them. Did u join the rally at the last stages? Did u feel tempted and hence held on to the stocks hoping for more upside? Or Did you fool urself by saying to urself that u were a long term Investor and held on to the stocks, while the reality was that you were greedy and held on to them for more profits.

Whatever mite be the reason, treat this as a lesson handed out. The lesson? " Dump your greed and your Stocks when the valuation overtakes the growth rate". Financial Markets have never been a place for the Weak hearted and it is only during times such as these that the truth is felt.

Stop feeling bad, get the learning and Happy Investing.

Which is the most difficult thing to do in a movie? If someone were to ask me this question, my reply without any hesitation will be "To Convey a message in a movie and to do it successfully", as most people who come to the theaters have only one "Entertainment" in mind.


Now Krish the film maker pulls of the aforementioned task with nonchalant ease with his movie "Gamyam (Telugu)" . I must say its been quite sometime since i have seen any movie like this. Absolutely Honest Film making. Handling a story, which had more chances of making the audience run for their Pop Corn out of boredom, the director not only manages to keep the audience interested, but also goes a step beyond and makes the audience think, think for a moment.

I am not going to give any reviews for this movie as its been quite sometime the movie had released and the web media contains enf and more reviews. But i would like to point out some points which i felt interesting about the movie.

I read a lot of reviews which spoke of Allari Naresh as the second most person of the movie, but i beg to differ on this, I name the Lyricist of the movie Sri Vennela Seetarama Sastry as the second hero of the movie. Never before i guess a lyricist played the role of a second hero. The one song where he explains life is awesome to say the least. To Sum it Up "No Praise can be too high for the lyricist."

For the first time or maybe in a long long time we saw "Naxalism" handled in the most objective manner.And the brilliant part is that's not in the main scheme of things too. Such was the attention paid to even the not so critical track.The track was handled in a very objective and honest fashion.

Finally the episode that deals with the dance girl, God! Wonderful, On your face hard hitting dialogues, Never were these episodes treated with such finesse before.

All in all, a fantastic journey, a thought provoking one.

P.S:Although off the topic, i would like to ask this doubt here, "Whats that so special about Philosophy in general, everyone knows the truth but when every time we hear it again and again it sounds like new, it becomes a new learning. Is that the beauty of the Truth or the Human Mind?"

History has repeated itself and as usual, this time too it the items on the takeaway menu remains the same. So will take it at least this time around? Time alone can answer that. So whats the takeaway?

Oops i forgot to mention the subject, its the recent crisis in the Financial Markets.

Investing is all about controlling the two demons "Greed" n "Fear" and unfortunately the "Expert Investment Bankers" never controlled the former and forgot about the latter, In the quest for hefty pay packets, Investor care was forgotten and the market became a place where the "Bigger Fool Theory" was played out. And when it ended the Investors became the biggest fools.

The Investors(?) too need to be blamed (not to that extent though) for not really understanding the underlying business and getting allured by higher Returns that were promised by these "EXPERTS".

The Investing public clearly needs to understand an important point "There is no such thing called as Short Term Safe n High Return. Returns and Risks are Directly Proportional and the more the return the greater the risk. And coming to time frame Risks are far greater if one takes a short term view as Emotions play an important role in the short term"

Now moving on to the other aspect called Leveraging: It is a tight rope walk. Not only the firms but the Investing Public were also guilty of Over Leveraging.Now Leveraging during a Bull Market looks to be a fantastic strategy, but as soon as the market turns bad the Excessively Leveraged will be the worst hit. So Make sure when Leveraging that you are adequately covered with cash to handle any crash.

Now all the aforementioned lessons are not something new. They are as old as the Rocks. Every crash has thrown up the same lessons, but yet we tend to forget them which reminds me of Bernard Shah's saying "If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience."

Religion- A set of rituals and practices that if followed will take us close to the Eternal or a set of stupid practices followed by people who do not have faith in themselves. Your view could be any one of those aforementioned ones depending on whether u believe in the existence of a Super Power or not.

Where did it come from? Why was it conceived? A search would throw up tons of Information that might require a lifetime for us to go through them. I will put it simply as a set of practices which are "Symbolic". The reason why I say them to be symbolic is that looked as it is in a superficial way most of them do not make any sense. In fact i would go ahead and say that man was made to follow religion to make sure that he "Denounced" religion. Paradoxical, it might sound, but that is the purpose.

One who truly understands religion ends up getting detached from all the rituals that religion calls for.

So Why about religion now? Recent happenings in parts of India, have again highlighted the fact that Learned or Academically qualified we might be, we still are Uneducated when it comes to religion. Money paid ( God knows why) and Lives Taken all in the name of religion again highlight our "IGNORANCE".

Money paid in Huge quantities for Conversions and to sponsor Violence clearly shows that academic qualification or Economic Status are not indicators of Maturity.

I really don't know whether to laugh or cry at these happenings. I even feel that we are better off banning all the religions and closing down all the Churches, Mosques and Temples till we mature and truly understand the meaning of Religion. By meaning i don't mean the Text Book Meaning but the Intended meaning. Now will it Happen? "Hope" is the name of the game.

Surprise, Surprise!!! The Country which symbolized "Free Markets" and embraced "Capitalism" as a way of life is now doing the unthinkable. Yeah, they are going the socialist way...

The woes brought about the problem of excess liquidity and greed has now forced the American Govt to take over many of the Financial Major companies. For record, they now own around 80% of AIG, have bought in all the problematic assets of Bear n Stearns, and they own the biggest mortgage firms of America Freddie n Fannie, and they have recently pumped in 247 Billion USD to bail these firms out the liquidity crunch.

Yeah u r reading it right, Add to this the fact thy ey have fixed floor prices for the stocks of Financial companies, prohbited Traders from shorting the stocks of some 699 financial companies!!! this country is now truly turning socialist.



The solution to the problems caused by the issue of Excess Liquidity seems to be Inject more liquidity into the system. US govt has spoken of a 700 Billion Dollar rescue plan and one strongly feels that even this wont be of any help unless the Fund Managers are not going to be monitored and questioned for taking decisions without evaluating the risks or taking decisions for personal gains fully knowing the risks involved.

So where does US go from here? By the looks of it,it seems that we have not seen the end of this problem, for the problem seems to be so deep rooted. US needs to save, go through a period of real consolidation where u are not going to have great results reported by companies, less sales and stuff but there seems to be no other permanent way out. Start Saving Uncle Sam.

P.S:The only silver lining for US in this whole episode is the fact that there is still no country which can substitute the US as the Consumption Giant, now that means all the other countries are trying desperately to keep the US afloat so that their own interests are protected. Constituting 40% of the Global GDP the US is still the Engine of the World Economy, notwithstanding the fact that its Debts are humongous to say the least.

Is Fedex's latest stop and it looks like Stations 14, 15  and 16 are not far off.  Goodness Me! What a player? Never before had Men's Tennis had someone so creative and so stylish.. There might be debates on whether he is the greatest ever or not, But i don't see any debate on who is the most creative and the most stylish player around. Fed wins Hands Down.

Sometime back I expressed my opinion on WTO talks that were held recently, Here we have a Professor in Trade reinforcing my views. These kind of things act as a fillip and makes me feel that i m at least thinking on the right track

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Columnists/Manoj_Pant/WTO_talks_Should_countries_trade/articleshow/msid-3339127,curpg-2.cms

It was all Roses, not long ago, 22k,25k all seemed possible. Most of the experts spoke about India's great economic development, India as a superpower. Decoupling theory, was the latest fad. Everyone spoke about Decoupling effect and how India was insulated from the rest of the world particularly the US. Reasons were given to the people to Justify the BULL RUN which the market was then.

Cut to present and the markets have corrected by more than 35% and now most of the experts are attributing it to Rising Crude, Weakness in Global Makets, US economic slowdonwn. Dunno how suddenly India has got Coupled again. Rupee is hitting lows after lows and suddenly everything looks bleak and experts are warning us for Tough times and a bear market.

Well, Anyone who has been following these experts on a daily basis will now mostly be in a mentally unstable condition. Politicians pale in comparison when it comes to speaking in different voices. General Public must be very confused.

So what is actually the reality and what can be expected?

Here is my analysis( Oops ppl must have got fed up of this word) or take on this whole thing.

To Begin with, Yes India is indeed decoupled to a great extent from the rest of the world and it is not like a China or a Taiwan or for that matter even a Japan all of which are export dependent, India has got a huge middle class consumer population which is 30 million strong. Add to this the fact that Rural population has not yet developed, if they are provided with a platform to grow into even Middle Class,India would have a Colossally big Domestic Market.

It is also true that India is growing and growing at quite a pace.

However India's Stock Markets are not decoupled from the rest of the World. For that markets Indian Stock Markets is Decoupled from Indians. Yes, thats the truth with around 70% of India' s household savings lying in Banks in the Form of Fixed Deposits and Savings and only around 5% in the Stock Markets, our own market is actually decoupled from us.

Add to this the fact that Pension funds are also not allowed to Invest in Equity markets, we have a scenario, where our economy to a great extent is dependent on Ourselves, but our markets are not. FIIs hold the remote for our market and the market dances as per their tune.

FIIs had loads and loads of money ( thanks to Fed ) to play with (thnks to P-Notes, which allowed and encouraged them) and they took the markets to dizzying heights in a jiffy, Cometh Sub Prime crisis, cometh Liquidity crunch and they are now selling left, right and centre to shore up their balance sheets, which are in a state of Hemorrhage.

Reuters report puts the current losses at 400 Billion Dollars US and this is just half of he problem, add all the Personal Loan defaults and other consumer loan defaults that we can expect it to be in touching distance of a Trillion Dollars!!!!

Now our analysts are saying abt Crude, Inflation and other stuff, If i remember correctly when Sensex was at 21k Crude was more than 100 even then and RBI was warning of potential Inflation, Yet no one cared.

Now they have started again, Most of the Analysts are painting an all gloom report again.

Hmm, the way i see it, India is all set to grow, Favorable Demographics, Educated and skilled workforce and a huge Consumer Base, means that we have all the Ingredients ready. But this growth of 8+% on a consistent basis is not going to possible unless we sort out a few things(on which is going to be my next article). Till these things are sorted out, India will grow Despite the System and not because of the System, but one thing Growth is for sure and with the Economy growing can the Markets be far behind??

However as Bufet said " Markets are like Voting machine in the short term and Weighing machine in the long term", So have a long term perspective (2+ years advisable) and set ur goals( i have already written on this) and Happy Investing :)

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Food-crisis-Try-rats-says-Bihar-govt/350268/
This is the status in one of the states of our country. Absolute Shame. 9+ growth, Foreign Investments, Booming Real Estate, but still people are starved for Food. One more example to show that the growth is not INCLUSIVE and still there is a huge section of the population has not come under the Beneficiaries bracket.

The worst part is not that the people are asked to eat Rats. The worst part is the confession of the Official that " Half of the grains in the Godowns are eaten by rats". Yet nothing is being done to stop that. Although agriculture is neglected, we still manage to produce enough food to feed the whole of INDIA, the problem is Poor Storage, Black Markets and Hoarding.

"Eating rats serves double purpose" says the Official, Dunno whether he will feed on them, however well cooked it might be?

To Sum it all up "Shame On Us"

Readers will remember my article on Rupee where i had advocated for a strong Rupee.
Here we have Swaminathan Aiyar presenting that as an election stargey to make sure that Inflation is controlled, by making the Imports cheaper.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Columnists/Swaminathan_S_Anklesaria_Aiyar/Will_a_strong_rupee_win_votes/articleshow/3321111.cms

Uhh, finally i have decided to write on this, after days of research,i found that i was getting deeper into the Excess Information Trap.

What is this meeting all about?
Simply put,the Developed world( Read US and the EU) wants the developing world to do away with the Tariffs on agriultural goods, which the Developing countries enforce to protect their farmers against cheap imports. The Developing world( Read India,China) wants the Developed nations to do away with the Subsidies which they dole out for their farmers

Are all Developing countries agains the removal of Tariffs on Imports?
No,Although a part of the developing block, Brazil, Uruguay wants the developing countires to do away with the Tariffs, because of their vested Interests in agricultural exports.( This is excluding US and EU)

Subsidies to US and EU farmers?

Yes, you are reading it right, US and the EU does give subsidies to its farmers. And these are Multi Billion Dollar Subsidies doled out. Subsidy amounts that is greater than the GDP of some of the Third World Countries.

Why this Subsidy?

Farmers on an average hold about 200 hectares of land to the 1 hectare average that an Indian Farmer holds. Now these US farmers although they hold this much amount of land cannot bargain for a price as they deal with all Big Retail Giants like Wal Mart, who buy in huge qunatities and stock it up. Now the US governmnet or for that matter any Government cannot force the Corporate Giants to increase their prices,so they allow the farmers to sell at low prices and then give huge subsidies to the farmers to compensate for the loss.

Current Scneario:

There is now a deadlock with the US n EU not agreeing to reduce on the subsidies and India n China refusing to do away with the Tariffs, to protect their poor farmers, who are still in the Dark.

My Take:
My humble opinion on this would be that India and China have got it spot on. Liberalizing the service sector and liberalizing agriculture are 2 different things altogether.While the former does have corporates running the show, the latter consists of lot of powerless Individuals. Liberalization of course should happen, but before that either of the 2 mentioned below must happen
A) Governement must make farming a viable business and educate the farmer or B) The US n EU must do away with the subsidies, so that the farmers of the Developing world are not at any significant disadvantage compared to their peers.

Which of the 2 will hapen first? Well, Ur guess is a good as mine

P.S:I will call this Only an Intro article, More on the Subsidies given on Cotton, Rice, Soya, Brazil's win over US in the Cotton Issue and other details coming soon.

"Here, There and Everywhere" Nope we are not talking about God here, we are talking about Bombs in India. The word Security seems to have been removed from the Country's dictionary. More than the explosions i am alarmed at the ease with which these terror networks are able to operate. Terror network is growing at an alarmingly fast rate. Blasts are no more confined to MUMBAI and SRINAGAR .

How come they have been able to grow at this alarming rate?

1. "Vote Bank Politics", the bane of any Democracy, more so in the case of India with it being a culturally diverse country,is the single biggest factor. With the educated class not voting, the minorities and the oppressed become the deciding forces and this Government has gone way too far to get the share of the minority vote. The Pending execution of Afazal whose involvement in the attack was prove beyond doubt is a standing testimony to that. Terrorism is being equated to Religion and this if continues spells nothing but "DISASTER".Can vote bank politics be removed from the system? "NO" it can never be done in any democracy. So can it be minimized?" Yes". How?

Action Item for Us:

People must for their own sake must excercise their franchise, the more the voting percentage we have the better as that and only that can minimize the game of Vote bank politics.

Now for the Govt:

Action Points for Govt:

Invest Heavily in Technology. It is not going to be possible to monitor a billion people with out dated systems. Invest for the future.

Implement "POTA". Networks need to be broken, for which fear needs to be sent down the spines of the people who support the networks.

And

Educate the minorities and make them feel comfortable. Get rid of their apprehensions and fears and Insecurities.

Finally,A single attack on a Country, was reason gud enf for that country to carpet bomb another nation. I am not asking for Carpet Bombing, but please make sure that u dont welcome the anti social elements with a Red Carpet.

Is one of the very few lessons which i still remember vividly. Gandhiji's writings on how he tried to imitate the English Gentleman is something etched in my memory. Forward 50 odd years and the author gets a chance to travel abroad and Well! Well!! Well!!!! the author is reminded of that same lesson.

When i look at People trying so desperately hard to prove to the citizens of the Western countries that they too are as developed(???) as my Western friends, i am baffled. What makes these people do this? What makes my own friends and colleagues speak with me in a neutral accent and then speak with my Western friends in a....well, Can i Call it American?? Nope its neither here nor there accent? What makes them try and owe the alien culture on themselves ???. Thankfully they dont spend as much as their Western Counterparts.

I am not generalizing, i never do that. Its just that most of them whom i happen to meet with or speak with fall in this bracket. What makes them do this? Are they going by the saying "When in Rome, Be a Roman", Well, then here is a question, Will these fellas do the same things, if they are posted in Kenya or Carribean Islands? I wonder.....( I might be wrong, though).

Well I am no psychologist, but i feel this is due to the sub conscious feeling that Westerners are superior to us. Citizens of US n Europe are God to us. Hence the attitude,We must do whatever we can to please them. This makes us bend before them. Not for a moment I am sayin that we must fight with them and assert our authority. But am saying that sub consciously most of these people are also racist in nature. They look down upon Blacks ook up at Whites and stoop low before the Whites and cry Foul terming their dominance as Racism. My question is who asked u to bend so low and make the other person think that he is superior?

Whats in a name? goes a saying, i will go ahead and ask Whats in the color of skin? or for that matter the nationality, after all these nationalities are all notional. We at the end of the day are humans and i dont see any disparities between a whte skinned person and a black skinned one. I am not advicing, some might feel that I am jumping the gun here(well could be true..), but all i would say is Plz be Urself. Forget about Imitating, its a cheap thing for us to spend our time on. U are what U are and be proud of that.

P.S: At the time of writing this, Blasts have rocked the Nation. Well, Condolonces to all the family members of the dead. Hope the society stands united and helps them get over this irrecoverable loss.

Readers please go ahead and listen to "Mungaru Male" songs in case if u have not yet listened. ( Guess most of u would have by now). Wat an amazin album!!! Songs simply take me into a different world altogether. Mano Murthy has come out with a GEM.

P.S: Mungaru Male is the Highest Grossing Cinema in the History of Kannada Cinema.

Well on seeing the topic, ppl might ask,Are u an economist or for that matter someone who has got any expertise in Finance? My answer to that is A Big "NO", I am neither of them. Then what makes me write on these topics? Well its simply the interest and the love for this field.

Before gettin into the topic, a bit of History on the INR. Before 1991 when we we had our License Permit Raj and other rigid policies which prevented International Investment and made sure that Indian Companies also never grew to match the International Standards, the Rupee was not very attractively priced against the dollar.

Cometh 1991 and the economic crisis ( which came as a result of decades of poor governance and policies which were suited for the Industrailists and the politicians to make money), cometh Manmohan Singh, who liberalized the Indian Economy, devalued the Rupee to save the Country. Thats the end of Part 1

Part 2 had Indian companies ( IT/ITES in particular) exploting the arbitration advantage to its maximum and minting money like anything. Indian Companies started showing its mettle. TATA group did a historical buy out of Corus, bought over Tetley and so did the Aditya Birla Group, they expanded into different continents and India Inc started attracting huge Foreign Inflows. Sensex zipped and zoomed and the strength of Indian Economy coupled with the weakness in the US meant that Rupee started appreciating against the dollar.

So Part 3 must have been Indian Rupee strengthening further against the dollar. But it is not happening. Rupee is weakening now. But how is it happening, that too at a stage when Crude is rising and US is also in a recession. There lies the greatness of our politicians.

What is that they have done? They invented P-Notes, an arrangement by which someone can invest( ???) in India without giving their Identity. Money which came through the P-Note route was Hot Money and this huge Influx of Dollars meant that the demand for Rupee went up and Rupee appreciated. (Software Companies cried Foul. )Now the moment Disaster Struck US this Hot Money vanished and so did the demand for Rupee. Had they encouraged more long term Money like that of CALPERS and allowed EPF to invest into Share markets, 2 things would have happened
1. Sensex would not have gone into such a big downward spiral and 2. Rupee would not have fallen this much now.

Why is Strong Rupee Important?

A strong Rupee means that we spend less for Crude. Ex: Let us assume that Crude is trading at 140 Dollars US, right now, and Rupee is trading at 40 against the USD,it means that government will spend Rs 140 * 40 per barrell. Now assume that the Rupee is at 43 against the dollar and now we spend 140 * 43 per barrell. Now there it is for all to see.India imports 70% of its Crude Requirements and imagine the amount of saving that a strong Rupee will bring us.

Also Crude is the basic material for all the operations, hence high Crude leads to a overall high cost of Living. So howmuch ever u make through ur lucrative software job or any job u will end up shelling far more to sustain the standard of living.

Now, wont the Software companies and the other export oriented companies be affected? is a question that will arise in the minds of the readers. My answer to that is, A rising currency will weed out all the Incompetent players who primarily rely only on the arbitration to make profits.A strong currency will only strengthen the competent and the efficient players. A Strong Currency is the Need of the Hour, from an econmical point of view.

My knowledge on Futures Trading is minsicule.Constructive criticism and alternate view points are most welcome.

Reams and Reams of Paper have been used up to paint a story of Oil Guzzling India and China as the main reasons behind the increase in the price of oil. If u have the habit of watching news channels then again ur opinion would not be any different. How True a Statement is it though?

Futures Market:

Introduction:

For benefit or readers who dunno what a Futures market is( guess most of them will be knowing about it). It is a place where an agreement is made between the parties to buy at a particular price on a Future date. To give an Illustration( am not happy with my definition), let say that u have 10 litres of oil with u, i need 10 litres for the next month, now i would want to secure my supplies for the next month and i am afraid that it might go up.So i enter into an agreement with u by which i agree to buy the oil at a price of say Rs 10 per litre( when the current market price is say Rs 8.50 paise per litre). Now if Oil shoots beyond Rs 10 i save my money and if it does not and goes down i lose my money.

Now what if i feel if the price of oil will go down to say Rs 6, i go ahead and make a sell agreement and sell Oil for say Rs 8 and if it comes to Rs 6 i go ahead and buy it back. Now my profit in this case will be Rs 2 per litre.

Time Bound Contracts:

All these contracts are time bound say 1 month, 2 months and these contracts can be extended, called as Roll Over in Futures market parlance. This extension cannot be beyond a particular time frame ( which i guess is 6 months or 1 year max).

Payment Terms:

There is no need to pay the entire amount when u enter into the contract. U need to pay only a percentage say 5 or 10% of the total contract. At the end of the contract if u want to buy the oil physically u can go ahead and pay the balance amount or if u want to make the transaction completely notional u go ahead and sell the contract and take the difference or pay the difference depending on whether u made profit or loss

Why Futures Market?

This market was originally evloved as a means to hedge ur portfolio against losses in the primary markets. Since these Futures are based on the primary markets they are also called as Derivatives.

Why about Futures Market here?

Futures which was originally conceived as something of a Hedge Tool, slowly became a Income generating option thanks to the brains in the Wall Street who managed to get as many commodities as possible under the gamut of Commodity trading.

Now the point to be noted is that none of the big Wall Street banks nor the Big shots who trade actively in Futures market actually take delivery of the stocks. They stick themselves to the notional buying and selling. Which means if there are more of such speculators who believe that Demand is going to go up and they pump money into the market, the price of Oil actually rises without even a single barrel beng bought or sold Physically(!!!)

What is Happening Now?

US through its mind blowing policies gave these speculators a great chance to have a field day, Everytime a bomb exploded in Bagdad or Saudi the price of Oil Shot up. Rather we can say that these speculators drove it up. India and China stories were used as camaflogues. When the prices went up the Oil Producing Nations thought of holding back supplies to increase profits,which gave the speculators reason to push the price again. More the prices went up the more these Oil Countries reduced to increase the supply, the more they did that the more the prices were pushed.

This vicious circle has resulted in Oil Trading at 145 Dollars per barrel (at the time of writing).

What needs to be done?

So what needs to be done? can we go ahead and ban the futures trading in Oil? Just because people are misusing it, it does not mean the system is bad. We need to fix the excesses of speculators.

The sad thing however is that it does not seem possible since the parties involved in this are Too Big for any rule to be applicable to them. So it seems like that the prices will continue to move up and we are in for some tough times.

P.S: It is not that these traders came into the scene all of a sudden, they have been there for years but it is just that they found the conditions conducive for them to ply their trade around, thanks to...Is there any need to mention the name???

Federer's reign at the Hallowed Centre Court came to an end yesterday, Although Federer lost to the number 2 player in the world and that too in a final, i would term this as one of the biggest upset in recent times.

Nadal's win reenforces my point about the grass getting slower. Take nothing away from Nadal though. He played Great tennis.

My real worry is about Federer not volleying enough. He came in as a good serve and volley player and from there on has gone to become a baseline player. If he wants to challenge and beat Nadal from now on, on a consistent basis, he would need to get his volleying in tact.

Staying away from home without any gr8 company is by itself a very difficult task, Now add the fact that one does not know to cook and is required to cook, and it does become underably difficult for the person.

Whom shall i thank ? God or Nature or Stars, no problem i will go ahead and thank all of them for not letting me get into such a position. I can now say that i have found a "Home Away from Home", thanks to my friend and his family. As all things in this world, even this shall pass ( yeah this honeymoon period shall also end :( ). Never bother this little phase has provided me with an enviornment which has made my learning of this wonderful art called Cooking much easier( Yes U heard me right, I did call it as Wonderful, thts what a gud environment does to you)

I am reminded of my home when my friend's wife in a husky voice prompts my friend to ask my opinion on something or asks him to listen to me. This is how it happens at my home and i guess that will be the case with most of the homes.

FLIP SIDE:

However there is a flip side, as it is with most of the things in this world. I feel bad for being an unnecessary burden on them and also for me intruding into their private space :(. Sorry about that my dear friend.

GOD Bless Both of You Prashanth n Archana

P.S: My hearty congratulations to both my friends Anand( who i guess will be reading this from the US) and Srinivas who is all set to travel to Britan. Wish u all the gud luck guys, have a gr8 time and remember to rake in the millions like Deepak

Is the question that I keep asking myself now 2 days after it had ended. My love for Football started in 1994 when all i loved and knew about Football was Goals. Ever since both my love and knowledge and love has grown, albeit (Unfortunately) love has gone at a much faster rate than knowledge.

So where does this one rank if i were to compare it with the tournaments i have watched?

1994: A very dull affair, i remember this world cup more for the expolits of Sweeden and Bulgaria, Roberto Baggio's missed penalty, Bebeto's antics after scoring a goal and a dull yet efficient game of Brazil.

1998: Known for all the contraversy surrounding Ronaldo in the finals, this was better than 94 for sure. France were flamboyant, rather its Forwards were flamboyant but only till they encountered quality opposition, Henry and Co could not manage even a single goal in the Knockout phase of the tournament. Davor Suker along with Zidane emerged as the players of the tournament.

2000 Euro: Again not a gr8 tournament by any standards, remembered solely for the last minute drama in the finals. Again it was Zidane who emerged as the player of the tournament.

2002 World Cup: As dull as the 94 edition. South Korea and Turkey were the teams which hogged the limelight for their exploits. Ronaldo laying the ghosts of his 98 world cup was the biggest highlight.Of course who can forget the disastarous exit of the Defending Champs

2004 Euro: although many xperts called it an average affair, i would call it a good tournament. Greece stole the show with their masterful tactics and great work ethic, Milan Baros was awesome and some of his goals were simply world class.

2006 World Cup:Wondeful tournament.Italy showed its class. Physical, Intelligent, Aggressive. They were awesome. Zidane's comeback nearly resulted in a fairy tale finish. He proved that he was still the best play maker in the world. Argentina flattered to decieve. ( Riquelme was awesome)

2008 Euro: The pick of the lot. Spain, Holland, Russia, Turkey were all excellent. Germany as usal was efficient and effective.Never did we have these many teams playing good attractive football. It was a treat to watch and it was fitting that Spain won the trophy. The list of good players would be a very long one. Awesome tournament.

Now u know why am i asking "Why did it End?", It was like watching a river in full flow. Sad that it ended. Lets hope that we get to see more such tournaments.