There are Lies  

Posted by Ram in ,

Damned Lies and Statistics, remarked Mark Twain. I am reminded of that when I get to see the Inflation figures released by the Govt of India.

The Govt says that it is taking all efforts to prevent India from slipping into Deflation. Steps taken by the Govt apart, let us first analyze, How real is the threat of India slipping into deflation in the first place? If Roger Federer were to lose to the 500th ranked player in a Grand Slam tournament, then yeah India too would slip into deflation.

There are strong reasons for me saying this, New found optimism coupled with Reduction in Production of Crude has meant that Crude Oil is on the rise again as a consequence of which Fuel prices back home have been hiked. Fears about the Monsoon has meant that prices of Groceries and Vegetables which were already high have risen further and I would say it is almost getting out of ordinary people like me.

To put it across more clearly, a middle class family which was managing its show with 5,ooo INR would now require around 6,500 to 7,000 INR to sustain the same standard of living and here we have the Government speaking about Deflation and steps to propel the Economy.

Now you call that deflation???

Seems like the Govt has got some special parameters on which it measures Inflation. It would be great if they can furnish those parameters so that the common people like me can actually understand what does the Govt mean when they use the terms "Inflation" and "Deflation".

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Huh...  

Posted by Ram in ,

How do you feel when you are made to wait at the Traffic Signal? How do you feel when you find that the train you board is delayed by some hours? In short, How does it feel to wait and wait knowing that you really cannot do anything to make the situation any better? Terrible isn't it?


This is what the Indian Farmer does every year,expecting for the Monsoon, as his survival depends on it and "only" on it. The wait is still on this year and I can only hope that the rainfall proves to be "really" adequate. (Politicians have already begun their dirty job of issuing statements. Huh will they ever change? )

Now no Government or for that matter No Human can do anything to Influence the Monsoon. But for sure the Government can do lots to reduce the dependency of the Farmer on Monsoons.
India uses thrice as much water as the United States of America to produce a tonne of wheat. Drip irrigation is still in its Infancy and Awareness is lacking regarding Usage of Fertilizers and reagrding the Avenues available to sell their produce and the Government is least bothered about educating the farmers.

Nor is the Government, showing any real interest in building the requisite Infrastructure, by which I mean enough water storage facilities to make sure that the excess rain water (when India has good monsoons) are stored and not let out into the Ocean,Ensuring Rural Connectivity and Steady Supply of Electricity.

At this juncture,I would request people to remember History. "Revolutions" have always had their roots in Inequality and this Inequality which is widening might also lead to another upheaval, unless addressed immeadietly ( although it might sound as an exaggeration now).


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Pause Plz...  

Posted by Ram in

I can still remember the picture that existed 6 months back, anyone and everyone i spoke to was predicting doomsday and was skeptical, apprehensive, disgusted with the markets and were not interested to really Invest or show any great Interest in it.


How things have changed!!!! Really cannot believe what I am seeing right now. Everyone i meet on the floor gives me 10 stocks to follow and all of them are really crazily positive about the markets now. Wow, I say to myself, Wat a transformation? When I was going around advocating people to Invest systematically and have confidence in the markets, I was given a cold stare.

Now when I go around advocating caution and asking people not to go overboard, (no prizes for guessing) I am being given the same cold stare again. Sensex has gained nearly 80% purely on back of sentiments ( global and local factors) without much of a change in the fundamentals. Penny stocks have started to rise again and that calls for caution.

I say this again, Markets look really promising from a long term point of view, however do remember that "A Rising Tide lifts All Boats" and only when the Tide receedes will people realize that they have got into a Sinking boat and by that time it will be all too late again.So Please hit the Pause Button and analyse ur portfolio and use this rally as an opportunity to exit the not so good businesses u own.

Happy Investing



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The Future is Here  

Posted by Ram in ,

The recent remarks of Chris Gayle and Mathew Hayden on T20 and the recent exit of Australia in the ongoing T20 World Cup have once again confirmed my long standing belief that it would not be long before the oldest form of the game (the newer baby, ODIs has begun its journey long back, hence am not mentioning about it here) begins its journey into Extinction.


Australia's recent exit confirms the point that even good or even great Test players can actually be a misfit in T20s and this fact is further supplemented by the successes of players who will not actually make it into a Test Side.

Wat does this mean? It means that T20 requires not only a different mindset but also a completely different set of Technique and the best part is that it is not as difficult to master as the technique required for Test Cricket is.

That makes it easier to learn from the players stand point.

On the monetary front, well well, we all know which format of the game rakes in all the Big Bucks, don't we? With players showing more Interest in taking to this form of the game as it is much more simpler and much less complicated than the 5-day format and the People( Read as General Audience ) showing more Interest in T20s because the format is more Interesting and takes much less time to produce a result.T20 is really light on their purse too when pitted against the burden which the 5-days or for that matter the ODIs place on the audience:).

There we go,with so many factors going for it, Test Cricket may not be replaced by T20s for that matter it never will be, rather T20s will in my humble opinion bulldoze Test Cricket and in some years time, I believe that the 5-day format will soon be history.

It so might happen, that Test Cricket might Re Invent or Mutate Itself into a 2-day game or max 3-day game, but I am pretty sure that the game is never going to be the same again and the 5-day format is not going to be around for a long period of time.


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Stage Set  

Posted by Ram in

or rather the Indian Voter has set the stage for reforms by voting with clarity and purpose. These results cannot be dismissed as a mere referendum on the State Governments. The results of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu clearly show that the Voter has voted for Stability and Clarity.


The Opposition party (BJP) of course made it easy for the Voter by their absence in these states and a couple more (Kerala and West Bengal) and by not even tying up with any of the local parties. 
Even Anti Incumbency has taken a back seat and lost out to Stability in the minds of the voter.

I must appreciate the voter for taking this smart decision and the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of the BJP for denying the average voter a choice.This has meant that many leaders like T R Baalu, Azhagari, Mamata Banarjee, Dayanidi Maaran, A.Raja all are in power and that does not look positive.

However, these leaders now will have lesser clout and cannot demand as per their wish as Congress has emerged much more stronger this time. Thank Heavens for that.

Dr.Manmohan Singh has a free hand now and I sincerely hope that he performs at least this time around and do the Dridirashtra act yet again ( For those of who are wondering what it is, It comes from Hindu Mythology and it is remaining as a silent spectator and Incompetent fella)

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A Note of Appreciation  

Posted by Ram in

at this moment to the EC (Election Commission) of India for having successfully conducted this show so successfully. It is a "thankless job" with the media highlighting only the stray Incidents and the flaws. 


But I feel it is time that we recognize their great work. To conduct elections in a fair and free manner in a country which has a good chunk of Illiterate population and a vast majority of Rural population and constantly under the threat of terrorism and Naxalism is nothing short of marvellous and Incredible.

Just Contrast this against what happened in the USA ( the world's oldest democracy and the most developed nation in the world) some years back when there was a huge confusion on who won the Race ( Al Gore or George Bush) and the drama went on for close to a week with no one sure of what was happening and we are bound to appreciate the great work of the Election Commission.

I would like to convey my heartfelt congratulations to all people who have been Involved in this process. Election Commission has made sure that Democracy is still very much alive in India and they deserve a huge round of applause for it.

Well movin on to the show itself, lots of questions are about to be answered, Can Jayalalitha emerge as a King Maker? Will Mayavati's aspirations be fulfilled? Can Chandrababu Naidu make a comeback? Can Modi weave his magic again? Will Advani's dream be fulfilled? or Is Sonia Gandhi going to wield power again? Well just 3 more days and I will be back in 3 days time for my take on the results.

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Grab It  

Posted by Ram in ,

Mr.Rajapakse, Go ahead and etch your name in Golden Letters in not only Sri Lankan History but also World History. You cannot do it by Obliterating, LTTE, rather you can achieve it by making a simple announcement.

There is no need to call for a Ceasefire, you can rather end this whole war by making one simple announcement. Go ahead and Announce that Tamil Immigrants in Sri Lanka will be treated in the same way as the Sinhalese are treated. You can make the LTTE totally Irrelevant, get the Appreciation of International Community and save thousands of lives and put Sri Lanka on the growth path.

If one were to look at this issue closely all this, it started because the Tamil People who came to work in Sri Lanka were not even treated as Humans, let alone being treated on par with the Sinhalese. And if I were to delve a bit more deeply into this, it arises from Ignorance. Yes Ignorance of the fact that all Humans are Equal and you do not become superior or Inferior because of the fact that you are born in a particular country, or you speak a particular language or because of your color.

This is one Issue that should have not become such a big one and consumed so many lives, but Past is Past. Sir, you now have the opportunity to bring an end to all this. So go ahead,announce and etch Ur name in History forever.

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