Yes that is what i decided to become one, even if that meant I ran the risk of putting in a few extra pounds :) and I was sure of becoming poorer by a few thousand Rupees :D.
Stripes are back in Fashion: Stripes which were previously considered as a design favored by people who were mentally disturbed are now back in Vogue. British designers are busy designing dresses with stripes says a news Item.
Well, believe that Stripes are going to remain in Vogue for at least a couple more years :) , any second opinions ???
Yeah it is an attempt at understanding how important is Understanding Culture in picking up Stocks? Sounds bizzare, doesn't it? I bet we wont feel so, if we were to look at this at a deeper level.
Consider this, Coca Cola, Gillete some of the gems in the crown of Warren Buffet. These are not only good companies but also companies which are a part of American Culture. Put in Simple words, to Americans water and soft drinks are almost similar.Shaving everyday again is a part of their culture. Sounds silly isnt it? Well believe me, it is not so easy and understanding this seemingly easy but rather difficult facet of Investing is in my opinion a key to the monumental success of Warren Buffet. Once you have got this in place, you start zeroing in on the companies which operate in that sector and then all your valuation principles come into play.
Now, this process will help you in picking companies which can give you consistent returns over a long period of time regardless of the economic conditions, thus forming the foundation of your portfolio.
OK now to Indian Context, what are the companies I can think of which form a part of Indian Culture? Too hard as the country is extremely culturally diverse. However if this Organization is made into an Institution, I will be the first person to go ahead and get a stake for myself.
This Organization employs about 14,000 people, runs Universities, manages thousands of acres of assets and rakes in around 100 million US dollars and above all manages the activities of the most temple, which is the most visited in the world. In case if you have still not got it, it is none other than TTD(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tirumala_Tirupati_Devasthanams).
If at all anything the recent crisis have made more people to turn to this place with the hope that God(if there is one?) will bail them out of the crisis. Hope TTD is listening :)
Well on a serious note, lets start our homework and hope to hit on something which can form the bedrock of our portfolios. It could be anything from a Beer Company( the changing demographics might make it a reality) to a Hospital ( the amount of Junk Food and Unhealthy life style) to a Fast Food Joint or of all a company which supplies clean drinking water ( don't be surprised if that happens :) )
This New Year has opened with a bang. Mr Raju of Satyam has given Hollywood and Bollywood a wonderful script, has given Media with loads of fodder for them to conduct debates and discussions and special programs,has given People like us material to discuss during lunch breaks, has given Employees with Uncertainity,fear and finally has given Investors, the best possible shock.
It has been an amazing story to say the least.Enough and more has been written about in the media. Hence i refrain myself from presenting the numbers again. But i would like to put forward just a doubt that is just killing me.
Mr.Raju says that he has been fudging the accounts to keep the company going and neither he nor his family members have taken a rupee nor derived any benefit out of this fudging process. Ok let us assume this to be true for a minute.
My doubt is that, the company has been and it is still doing the business of providing IT service. The company's workforce is around 50k. The company derives its revenues by billing the clients who are mostly Fortune 500 companies. The billing rates of the company are almost on par with most of the other IT Majors like Infosys, Wipro and TCS. This means that money has been flowing into the coffers of the company.
Now lets look at the expenditure side, the company is half as big as Infosys technologies Ltd, which pays twice as much as employers as Satyam does. Now looking at the Remuneration which Satyam pays to its employees, it is again on par with Industry majors.
Hence based on the aforementioned points we can safely conclude that Satyam has and must have got enough money to keep the cog moving. So the claim of Mr. Raju that he has brought in 1300 crores of his own money to keep the company moving is baffling to say the least. What has happened to the money which the clients must have paid Satyam?
Now let me give my version of what could have happened. Mr.Raju must have siphoned off the money to fund his real estate purchase and other purchases. He must have pledged his shares and obtained money for those activities. As long as the share price remained high and the prices of real estate was moving up he must have been a happy man. Once the Share Price of Satyam started to fall he must have been worried as his borrowing capacity was decided by the price of the Share.
His statement that All his efforts such as dividends and bonuses must have been to infuse confidence in the Investors was to make sure that his borrowing capacity remained intact. Global recession played spoil sport and it took down the price of real estate and the Sensex down.
This meant that he could not sell off the real estate holdings to bring back the money which he has siphoned off and he could not borrow any more and in fact on the contrary needed to pay the lenders for the drop in the share price. Our man was struck in catch 22 situation and then came out with a master plan to purchase stakes in Maytas using Cash that was not there. Had it gone through he would have made Maytas poor but carried on with the game, unfortunately it failed and he decided rather was forced to confess.
Readers let me know if u feel otherwise :)
Mr.Raju has come out with the Joke of 2009 so early in the year when he said that "None of the Board of Directors knew about what was going on in the company"
P.S: Why didn't SEBI remove the Satyam counter from F&O segment? The removal would have meant Satyam could not have fallen by more than 10-20% max in a day. This fall has wiped out millions of Rupees, all of which belong to the average Indian. While I do understand that exit routes needed to be provided for Investors, I believe in this case a freezing at least on temporary basis until the situation was brought under control would have definitely helped the common Investor.
Lesson 1: Greed Kills:
Yeah it does, does not matter how big you are or how mighty you are. Ask Lehman Brothers or AIG or Barclays or the average Indian Investor for a confirmation. Everyone be it small or big forgot this simple truth and are now finding themselves in Intensive Care.
Lesson 2: Back offices can't get decoupled:
"Decoupling" a term which was on the lips of every person whom I met, everyone spoke of India as an Insulated Economy conveniently forgetting the fact that India's growth was predominantly driven by the Service and the Manufacturing Industries which catered mainly to the needs of the US n Europe. Now that Europe n US find themselves in a deep recession, India has started to feel the heat. Time to move on and become a world leader and not remain a back office of the world.
Lesson 3: Nothing lasts forever
Be it the Australian Supremacy in Cricket or the Dominance of Federer in the lawns of Wimbledon or the American hegemony in Olympics, nothing lasts forever, everything has got to come to an end.
Lesson 4: Pseudo Secularism Hurts
As the Congress government in India is now finding out. Having taken a soft stand on terrorism to please the minorities, congress is now finding itself in a huge hole getting out of which is not only necessary but mandatory for its survival. Too bad that it has taken so many unfortunate incidents for Congress to realize this.
2008 also gave us some wonderful memories to cherish
Who can ever forget the sight of Micheal Phelps winning his 8th Gold to beat Spitz's record of 7 gold medals. Here was a man who came with a mission and he achieved it in style. Donno when and by whom will this record will be broken but I am pretty sure that it is going to remain unchallenged for a long time to come.
Usain Bolt's stunning runs in the 100 and 200 metres at Beijing. I cannot forget forever the adrenaline rush that i felt when Usain ran his 200 metres. Bolt is now gearing himself for breaking the 400 metres record and I am already looking forward to it.
Spain got the monkey of its back, with a stunning performance to lift Euro 2008. They played like true champions and Torres and Villa became superstars. As i had written before, Euro 2008 was a wonderful spectacle and its end made me really sad.
Rafeal Nadal winning his first Wimbledon title after an epic struggle. Federer or Fading light nothing could deter Nadal from his destination. I was reminded of "Rumble in the Jungle". I had read so much about it and here I was watching a similar contest. A Match for a lifetime.
Now to the Opportunity, well I have said this time and again and now I end with the quotes of 2 of the greatest Investors of of all time, Buffet's "Be Greedy when others are Fearful and Vice Versa" and Sir John Templeton's quote "Before this century is over, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will probably be over one million versus around 10,000 now. So for the long-term, the outlook is tremendously bullish if you buy stocks blindly to keep for a century."
Lets Take the lessons of 2008 and remember dear friends that "People who don't remember the past are bound to get punished in the future". Njoy 2009 and lets hope and strive for a peaceful and hunger free world in 2009.
A marathon journey and had it not been for Movies and Music, the journey would have been excruciatingly painful one too. Thanks to technology,I was able to keep myself engaged and entertained for the length of the journey.
By the end of the Journey I can say, i became eligible to call myself as "A Movie Addict" and a "Music Maniac". 6 movies in a span of 21 hours is I believe too high a number by any yardstick. The good thing about the whole exercises however was that most of them were real good, with a couple of them in the league of "Extra Ordinary".
All started off with "Sparrow" a Chinese movie, which deals with the story of a pick pocket and his gang of men and how they go about freeing a girl from a Big Shot. It was a a movie which started off well and tapered off towards the end. Then came Taimur n Shafia an Arabic movie which dealt with the story of lovers and the ego clashes between them. The movie must have been made as a full fledged comedy movie, however the director made it a regular commercial flick by adding some unnecessary elements towards the end.
After 2 movies i got a bit tired of movies and I moved to the Music Section where Haydn provided me not only the much needed entertainment but great comfort with his symphony Number 88.
With over brimming joy i returned back to continue my movie marathon and resumed it with "45 Yoam" an Arabic movie, which deals with the mindset of a youngster, who is charged with having murdered his parents. Did he really murder them? If so why did he do it?, the movie although moves on predictable lines in the second half makes for a good watch with a really moving climax. Wall- E followed and Pixar Studios with this movie have covered a subject which is not a subject which is usually covered by Animation movies. Handling a sensitive subject and handling it with finesse,the makers have made an all time great movie.
After taking a short nap and recharging myself i switched back to watch "The Dark Knight" and i felt so happy and joyous after watching this all time classic. If i were to write about this movie that alone would take up a few pages on itself. If Heath ledger's performance was brilliant to say the least, the Script work was simply out of the world. The whole angle in which the subject has been approached and dealt with calls for a "Thumbs Up". Amazing movie. After a series of emotional movies i needed to get myself out of that mood and i decided to go for Mamma Mia a light hearted musical characterized by Cool songs, awesome locations and an average screenplay.
After all this, i still had time and what better way to spend time rather than to listen John Williams, Indiana Jones, ET, Jaws, Jurassic Park,Goodness Me!!! Hats off to U Sir. And when my journey ended and i reached my Native Place with Superman and Olympic Fanfare theme ringing in my ears, I felt like a KING notwithstanding the fact that I dont have a fortune or a Kingdom or a Queen ;)